European folklore believed that frogs kept in a glass would be able to forecast the weather. People filled some water in the glass to keep the amphibian happy, and then added a small ladder. A climbing frog would indicate good weather, whereas a frog hanging out in the water would show bad weather. This belief especially stuck with people in the German speaking countries where weather forecasters are typically called ‘Weather Frogs’ (Wetterfrosch). Well, weather forecasters do one thing well: forecasting. They are the true masters and I thought that we could get some insights from one of them. It is frog migration season in Bavaria and I happened to have found one who is willing to talk to me. Please meet Franz the Frog. Franz resides in Bavaria, Germany where people recognize him as a trusted master forecaster.
AN IMAGINARY CONVERSATION WITH THE FROG
Christoph: How is life as a master forecaster? Your pictures are every on the side of the roads these days. You must be pretty busy? Spring is known for its volatile weather.
Franz the Frog: All cool here in the pond. Thanks for asking. We were quite busy up until yesterday. That’s when we finished our quarterly forecast. I am looking forward to jumping around for the next few weeks.
Christoph: But wait a second! It’s a volatile climate out there. How can you just sit there, jump around and not forecast whenever things change?
Franz the Frog: Dude, I hear ya’. But the big boss here in the pond decided that 2-3 forecasts per year are totally fine. Plus we have so much other stuff to do. Also, do you realize how much work we have to do to complete a forecast?
Christoph: Sorry, this was news to me. Then tell me, why exactly is this so much work?
Franz the Frog: Helllllooooooo!!!!! Each forecast starts with us looking at weather patterns for the past five years. Just simply gathering the data that is stored all over our pond takes us forever. Our big boss in the pond also wants us to create detailed variance reports for those years. That takes about a month. To create the actual forecast, we turn over every single leaf in our pond. And we record every little rain drop. That takes a lot of time. Get it?
Christoph: Oh…I see…a lot of detail. But a lot of detail should result in higher accuracy right? My wife Jen complained about your reliability the other day. She claimed that she would not even ‘pack a suitcase for vacation’ using your information. Errr…please don’t shoot the messenger.
Franz the Frog: Watch it, buddy! I will stick my tongue out here in a second. What do you expect? We get paid by our big boss in the pond. If the boss is happy, the flies are happy and we are happy. The boss decided that it’s best for us to provide a forecast that tells you guys exactly what you want to hear. Last year we saw rain coming. Your wife complained that she did not want any rain that particular week. She said:’Ahh, this stupid forecast. Rain is driving me crazy. It should be sunny!!!’. That got my big boss in the pond really upset. And guess what happened: no pay. That made our decision easy: we would eliminate a lot of pain and frustration if we simply forecast what everybody wants to hear.
Christoph: Oh…ok. That is so not cool. Let’s change topics. What type of tools do you guys use to do your forecasts? I mean, we’re in the year 2011 so I suspect that you guys have some cool tools…like that PC game Frogger?
Franz the Frog: Frogger rules!!! If you like Frogger, you will be happy to hear that we are still using the same platform. No changes. Here, take a look: We have special leaves from a searose that was created in Redmond, WA’. Those leaves allow us to play with the data that we collect. The nice thing is that everybody in our pond has a ton of those searoses flying around. And the other guys love those leaves. The all create their own versions. But do me a favor and DO NOT talk to the green guy over there: he has to collect all the leaves at quarter-end. He hates his job. A bunch of my colleagues sometimes play a joke on him and swap out leaves or hide them. Others change the carefully thought-out leaf structures by ripping a holes in them or by chewing on them. You should see his face when the leaves don’t stack!!! Haha…RRRiibbitt.. Hilarious.
Christoph: Holy tadpole! That sounds like a tough job. Can you trust the data then?
Franz the Frog: Probably not. But hey…that’s the way the pond has been for a long time. It worked in the past it should work in the future, right? We have been around for thousands of years. And the big boss is happy and we’re getting paid—what’s not to like?